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2022 Western States 100 Group Assume Predictions – iRunFar


Western States 100 logo - 2022Whereas it all the time means staying up late on one of many busiest weeks of my 12 months, as all the time listed here are YOUR Western States 100 group-think predictions in one among my favourite iRunFar articles in a given 12 months. Sure, it’s geeky, but it surely’s additionally informative as heck. For the Thirteenth-straight Western States, I’ve tabulated and analyzed the votes solid in our Western States prediction contest. Up to now, these group assume predictions have typically been (a lot) higher at forecasting the race’s final result than particular person pickers. So, in the event you’re in search of a stable relative rating of this 12 months’s Western States 100 rivals, look no additional.

[Editor’s Note: You can read both our women’s and men’s previews, and follow our live race coverage starting 5 a.m. U.S. PDT on Saturday.]

How the Group Assume Predictions Work
Again to the predictions. Beneath, we try to use a hive-mentality strategy to see how the lads’s and ladies’s fields play out when the collective ideas of 790 contributors are accrued. Along with displaying what number of picks the highest runners obtained for every place, we ranked the runners by MVP-style voting (i.e., eight factors for first, seven factors for second, and so forth). Each the lads’s and ladies’s tables present all WS 100 runners who accrued greater than 25 factors. Learn on to see how the plenty predicted the end result for the Huge Dance this weekend in addition to some iRunFar evaluation of these predictions and commentary on the race.

The Simply Rewards
Thanks once more to all who participated within the contest! After this weekend, 4 winners can be topped and obtain prize packs courtesy of HOKA, Buff, Squirrel’s Nut Butter, and Drymax, with the grand-prize winner additionally getting a candy print from Maggie Tides. Bear in mind to comply with us on Twitter to obtain updates on the leaders all through the day (and night time) to see how your picks are performing.

2022 Western States 100 Girls’s Area

2022 Western States 100 Group Think Predictions - women

Attention-grabbing Girls’s Area Notes

  • The very first thing that catches my eye is simply how worldwide the ladies’s prime contenders are this 12 months. Principally, it’s one out of each two  girls are worldwide as you go additional down the checklist. Amongst these girls are 3 from Canada, 2 from France, and one every from New Zealand, Zimbabwe, Australia, Poland, Switzerland, Spain, and Italy.
  • Subsequent up, the highest returning girls’s runner, Ruth Croft, has essentially the most votes for first and second place, in addition to essentially the most total votes and essentially the most factors. I assume that formally makes Ruth the favourite.
  • Brittany Peterson as fourth final 12 months whereas Katie Asmuth was fifth, making them the second and third prime girls’s returnees this 12 months. Peterson had essentially the most votes to complete third, whereas Asmuth had essentially the most votes to complete fourth or fifth. The gang suggests Peterson will end second, primarily based on each variety of votes and level whole, whereas Asmuth obtained the third most whole votes and the fourth highest variety of factors.
  • Hope springs everlasting for Camille Herron, who has one end in three begins at Western States, but additionally has loads of world data to her identify. Leaning on the latter, Herron has the third most votes to complete each first and second and the third highest level whole, behind Croft and, then, Peterson on every.
  • Emily Hawgood and Kaci Lickteig have been each in final 12 months’s prime ten and, respectively, had essentially the most votes to complete sixth and eighth.
  • I consider the one girl to being ranked decrease than her 2021 completed primarily based on level whole was Switzerland’s Luzia Buehler who as eleventh final 12 months however ranked seventeenth right here. Noteably, she was additionally fifth eventually 12 months’s UTMB.
  • The one prime vote getter to complete in any single place who’s making her Western States debut, is Leah Yingling, who had essentially the most votes to complete seventh in addition to being ranked seventh on whole factors.
  • The highest ranked debutant is France’s Camille Bruyas, who had the fifth most factors on solely the eighth most votes. She was second eventually 12 months’s UTMB.
  • Whereas not a prime vote getters for any single place, Keely Henninger and Lucy Bartholomew have been ranked eighth and ninth primarily based on factors.
  • The Queen, Meghan Canfield, is the second oldest girl within the yield, whereas amassing the twenty third most factors and votes within the common tally. What’s extra impress is that she had the second most votes to win the masters (40+ years outdated) class, incomes extra first place votes there than six girls favored above her within the common tally. Camille Herron, 20 some years Canfield’s junior, was simply the favourite to win the grasp’s class with 410 votes to Canfield’s 70. Anne-Marie Madden (54 votes), Ailsa Macdonald (51 votes), and Luzia Buehler (34 votes) rounded out the highest 5 in girls’s masters voting.
  • The place as final 12 months, I famous that rankings felt pretty dispersed, the highest ninth ranked runners are pretty effectively damaged away from the remainder of the sphere and even inside these ninth, there’s fairly sturdy constant between prime level getters, vote tallies inside particular person placings, and whole numbers of votes. That interprets into pretty sturdy preferences. What’s enjoyable about that’s that there are nearly sure to be some fairly large surprises compared to the group assume… and who doesn’t love underdog story!

2022 Western States 100 Males’s Area

2022 Western States 100 Group Think Predictions - men

Attention-grabbing Males’s Area Notes

  • OH, no isn’t this enjoyable?! Jared Hazen has essentially the most first place votes, however with 79 extra total votes in addition to essentially the most votes to complete second and third, Tim Tollefson was the highest level getter.
  • Tyler Inexperienced is the highest returning runner from final 12 months, when he completed second. This 12 months, he leads in votes to complete fourth or fifth, whereas rating third in factors and whole votes.
  • Ending eighth final 12 months, Hayden Hawks is rating fourth going into this 12 months’s race. He wasn’t the highest vote getter to complete in any single place. Nor was Adam Peterman, who’ll be making his 100-mile debut after being ranked fifth total.
  • After end third final 12 months, Drew Holmen obtained essentially the most votes to complete sixth or seventh, whereas being ranked sixth primarily based on factors. It’s fascinating to notice that final 12 months’s top-ten returning girls have been typically ranked increased going into this 12 months’s race, each the second- and third-place males from final 12 months have been decrease ranked, and that’s with final 12 months’s males’s winner Jim Walmsley not returning.
  • Persevering with the above development, newcomer Arlen Glick racked up extra factors in seventh then final 12 months’s fourth-place finisher Cody Lind, who ranks eighth going into this 12 months.
  • The highest ranked man to complete eighth and the ninth rating man primarily based on factors is Alex Nichols, who did end tenth eventually 12 months’s race… but additionally completed second at Western States in 2017.
  • Not like the ladies’s discipline… and a few previous males’s fields, the lads’s prime rankings are decidedly US centered. Previous UTMB champion Ludovic Pommeret of France is the highest ranked worldwide male in tenth. Simply behind him are France’s Seb Spehler and the United Kingdom’s Tom Owens, ranked eleventh and twelfth, respectively, primarily based on factors. Certainly, that worldwide cluster from ninth via eleventh contained the one worldwide runners within the top-20. I consider Canada’s Reid Coolsaet in twenty third was the one different worldwide male ranked within the prime 25.
  • Alternatively, Ludovic Pommeret was simply the highest vote getter for the lads’s masters win with 261 votes. Trueheart Brown (not operating) was second with 97 votes and Scott Traer was third with 94 votes. Rounding out the highest 5 are Tom Owens with 77 votes and Trevor Fuchs with 34 votes for the lads’s masters win.

Basic Observations

  • Curiously, throughout genders, the youngin’s get the votes. The three youngest runners within the race are all 26 years outdated, with Adam Peterman, Lucy Bartholomew, and Rod Farvard all being ranked above. Similar for 3 of the 5 27 12 months olds in Jared Hazen, Emily Hawgood, and Cody Lind. And the one 28 12 months outdated within the race is Zoë Rom within the girls’s rankings. To spherical out the below 30s, two of the 5 29 years olds–Arlen Glick and Tyler Fox–are ranked.
  • Once more, throughout genders, there are only a few final minute withdrawals, a minimum of compared to another years, with Trueheart Brown being the one ranked runner to depart the sphere between organising this contest and writing this text.

[Author’s Note: As noted at the outset, this is one of those late-night passion projects. Please forgive any typos or muddled thoughts. Tabulating and turning this around on the night I close the prediction contest is a worthwhile challenge. I hope to reread the article and add more thoughts tomorrow.]

Name for Feedback

  • So what do you concentrate on the group assume predictions?
  • What fascinating observations have you ever made concerning the information?
  • How would you modify your picks primarily based on what you already know now?
  • Wish to make any of your predictions public? In that case, go away a remark!



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